Good for St. Mary's. I am pretty confident they were not going to make it without a WCC tourney title, even though they were probably more deserving than many who will make it. Gonzaga drops some not just because they lost, but because it was so decisive.
I am pretty sure I am right that most brackets have New Mexico way too high. They have some nice wins to be sure, but have gotten VERY lucky in close games. And keep in mind when they won @ BYU, the Cougs were without their the conference player of the year for half the game. If they really are a 2 seed like some suggest, then some 15 seed is going to be very happy to have a very winnable first round game.
1 - Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2 - West Virginia, Ohio State, Villanova, Purdue
3 - Kansas State, Pitt, Michigan State, Wisconsin
4 - Tennessee, New Mexico, Maryland, Vanderbilt
5 - Temple, BYU, Baylor, Georgetown
6 - Butler, Texas A&M, Xavier, Richmond
7 - Texas, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Clemson
8 - Missouri, Cal, Florida State, UTEP
9 - Louisville, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Marquette
10 - Utah State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, UNLV
11 - Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Florida, San Diego State,
12 - Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Washington
13 - Siena, Murray State, Cornell, Kent State
14 - Wofford, Sam Houston State, Weber State, Oakland
15 - UCSB, Morgan State, East Tennessee State, North Texas
16 - Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Jackson State (last 2 are in play-in)
Last 4 teams out (in order):
Memphis
Illinois
UAB
Seton Hall (changed my mind... the Pirates are the next closest Big East team)
I have to disagree with you, Ryan. Just because the Lobos don't blow teams out doesn't mean they aren't very, very good. They are currently 6-0 against ranked opponents, 6-2 against the RPI Top 50 and 11-2 against the RPI Top 100. They also have a Sagarin ELO-CHESS of #7 and a RealTime RPI rating also of #7. They know how to win, and they've proven they can win on the road and win in close games. They're 10-0 in games decided by 5 points or less this season. Anybody who has them rated as a #2 or #3 is completely justified, and I think you ought to follow suit and stop drinking the Big 10 kool-aid.
ReplyDeleteWell, we agree on a lot. NM wins a lot of close games and therefore is ranked very highly in every metric that doesn't take into account margin of victory. I also agree that putting them at a 3 or perhaps even a 2 is justified if you are solely ranking the teams that have accomplished the most rather than who are truly the best teams. I try to blend both. I'm generally a fan of Pomeroy who has the Lobos at #40. I think that is absurd, but I do think his ratings get at something important.... 2 seeds shouldn't habitually play close games against Air Force and Wyoming and Colorado State and TCU type teams. It's great that the Lobos pulled them out, but I think that is a sign of a weakness that will soon be exposed.
ReplyDeleteThe other point here is that I am just trying to mimic what I think the selection committee will do, and even if they win the MWC tourney, I don't see the Lobos getting a 2. Who is the last team other than Memphis to get a top 2-3 seed from a non-BCS conference? They don't give them out very often...
Well stated Ryan, and I know Pomeroy gets a lot of love, as does Sagarin. As for the statement about close games against AFA, CSU, TCU etc., all I can say is that you don't get to pick your conference games, so you just have to go out there and win them. Frankly, the Lobos have been winning those games. Teams like Kansas St., Georgetown, Wisconsin, haven't been winning similar games in their own conferences.
ReplyDeleteThat said, your point about Non-BCS rings true. I hope that you're wrong. Do you think if the Lobos win their tournament and Kansas St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Villanova don't, the Lobos would get the #2 seed? Or would they still be relegated to a #3 or your #4?
Also, what would it take for you to rank them a #3 in your own bracket? Do teams ahead of them need to stumble, and how significantly?
My guess on what the committee will actually do is give the Lobos a 4 unless they win their conference tourney, in which case they would be a 3. Though clearly it does depend what others do as well... if Maryland win the ACC tourney, they could jump the Lobos no matter what they do.
ReplyDeleteFYI, I am a Drake alum who is a big Missouri Valley conference fan, so I do have respect for non-BCS conferences out there that play some pretty good basketball.