3/13/2010 Bracket

1 - Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, West Virginia
2 - Syracuse, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State
3 - Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
4 - Wisconsin, Michigan State, New Mexico, Pitt
5 - Baylor, Temple, Maryland, Xavier
6 - Butler, BYU, Richmond, Texas A&M,
7 - Gonzaga, Cal, Northern Iowa, Texas
8 - UTEP, Marquette, Notre Dame, Florida State
9 - Clemson, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Utah State
10 - Missouri, Louisville, Wake Forest, San Diego State
11 - Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Old Dominion, St. Mary's
12 - Washington, Illinois, Cornell, Florida
13 - Minnesota, Siena, Murray State, Akron
14 - Wofford, Sam Houston State, Montana, Oakland
15 - UCSB, Morgan State, East Tennessee State, North Texas
16 - Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas Pine Bluff (last 2 are in play-in)

Last 2 out:

Mississippi State

Rhode Island

Comments:

The teams that I have in and the last 2 out above are the only teams that have any chance at an at large, especially given the bubble will probably shrink due to the possibility of bid-stealers in CUSA, ACC, and WAC, among others.

Even with the head to head result, I still think Florida is ahead of Miss State at this point. 9-7 in the SEC E is a lot more impressive than 9-7 in the SEC W. Plus Florida has big wins against Mich. State and Florida State. If Miss State can beat Vandy, then they will almost certainly jump into the field.

The two Big Ten teams had big wins, but probably have to keep it going. Again, we have a situation where Minny won @ Illinois late in the season, but I still have Illinois ahead in the pecking order. Illinois went 10-8 against a tougher schedule. Minnesota went 9-9 without having to go to Madison. Also, Illinois's dual wins against Vandy and @Clemson trump Minny's nice win @ Butler. I think Minny almost certainly needs to beat Purdue, whereas Illinois would have a chance to make it without another win so long as they play OSU close.

Vandy sure did shoot up the board for just a little win against Georgia. But with Maryland, Wisky, MSU, and NM all losing, someone has got to be a 3 seed. Georgetown also rises to a 3 seed, though they probably will drop back to a 4 if they lose tomorrow. They have wins over nearly every top tier Big East team, plus Duke and Butler. I'd say they deserve a pretty high seed.

I'll try my hand at turning this into an actual bracket tomorrow.