2023 - FINAL SEEDS

1) Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue

2) UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette

3) Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas St, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St, Duke

6) Texas A&M, Miami, St. Mary's, Kentucky

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Northwestern

8) Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis

9) Maryland, Iowa, Illinois, Auburn

10) Penn State, Boise St, USC, Utah State

11) Rutgers, Miss State, Providence/Arizona State, NC State/Nevada

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara

14) Kennesaw St, Furman, Grand Canyon, Princeton

15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville

16) Northern Kentucky, A&M CC, Fairleigh Dickenson/Texas Southern, Howard/SEMO

The 2 teams out with a reasonable case to be in:  Oklahoma State, Wisconsin

OSU is just like Oklahoma last year, who I selected to be in but the committee left as the 2nd team out.  I guess when you have that many quad 1 chances, you have to win a few more than they did?  Or maybe it is a bit softer bubble this year, so there is room for OK State to squeak in?  I'm 50-50 on this one.

Regarding Wisconsin, I'm a Badger fan, so am not 100% objective on this, but flawed as it is, IMO, Wisc's profile is equal to Providence's and better than the other 3 play-in teams.  If it was any other team, I would probably have included them even though no one else is doing that. But since it is my team, I'm assuming my Badger red colored glasses must be distorting my vision. :)  I'll feel happy and vindicated if they somehow make it, but not expecting it to happen.

I'd be disappointed (but not surprised) if the committee picks: Pittsburgh.  If they are in, it is just because there is some unspoken quota of ACC teams that have to make the field.  They have a much worse resume than OK State or Wisconsin (no signature win, more bad losses) and their metrics just as bad as Wisconsin's (better on NET, but lower on Kenpom, Torvak, and WAB).  

I'd be surprised if the committee selects: Vandy or Clemson.  These teams have some arguments supporting their inclusion (more than Pittsburgh, at least) but not expecting it to happen for them.

Anyone else would qualify as a true shock for me, though that has happened before so who knows.

Enjoy the Madness!!

3/12 AM Seeds

1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue

2) UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona 

3) Marquette, Gonzaga, Kansas St, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5)  TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St, Duke

6) Miami, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Northwestern

8) Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, West Virginia, Maryland

9) Memphis, Iowa, Illinois, Auburn

10) Penn State, Boise St, Rutgers, USC

11) Miss State, Utah State, Providence/Arizona State, NC State/Nevada

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Kent State, Yale, Iona, Louisiana

14) Kennesaw St, UC Santa Barbara, Furman, Grand Canyon

15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville

16) Northern Kentucky, A&M CC, Fairleigh Dickenson/Texas Southern, Howard/SEMO

First 5 Out:  Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Vandy, Clemson

3/11 Seeds

1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue

2) UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3) Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas St, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) Miami FL, TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St

6) St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Duke

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Northwestern 

8) Arkansas, Memphis, Florida Atlantic, West Virginia

9) Iowa, Auburn, Illinois, Maryland

10) Boise St, Penn State, Miss State, Rutgers

11) Providence, USC, NC State/Oklahoma St, Vanderbilt/Utah State

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale, Iona

14) Louisiana, Kennesaw St, UC Santa Barbara, Furman

15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville

16) Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Fairleigh Dickenson/A&M CC, Howard/SEMO

First 5 Out:  Wisconsin, Nevada, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Arizona State.  

My last couple teams and first team out look different than some others... see tweets here for my rationale:  https://twitter.com/rpm002/status/1634080198063685632

3/9 Seeds

 1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue

2) UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3) Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas St, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) Miami FL, TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St

6) St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Duke

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Northwestern 

8) Arkansas, Memphis, Florida Atlantic, West Virginia

9) Iowa, Auburn, Illinois, Maryland

10) USC, Boise St, Providence, Miss State

11) NC State, Penn State, Nevada/Pitt, Rutgers/Utah St

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale, Iona

14) Louisiana, Kennesaw St, UC Irvine, Furman

15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville

16) Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Fairleigh Dickenson/A&M CC, Howard/SEMO

First 5 Out: Arizona State, Wisconsin, Clemson, OK State, North Carolina (as of today, no one else is close)

3/8 Seeds

1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, UCLA

2) Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3) Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas St, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) Miami FL, TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St

6) St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Duke

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Iowa

8) Northwestern, Arkansas, Memphis, Florida Atlantic

9) USC, Boise St, Auburn, West Virginia

10) Illinois, Maryland, Providence, Utah St

11) NC State, Nevada, Penn State/Arizona State, Wisconsin/Miss State

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale, Iona

14) Louisiana, Kennesaw St, UC Irvine, Furman

15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville

16) Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Fairleigh Dickenson/A&M CC, Howard/SEMO

First 4 Out: Rutgers, Pitt, Clemson, OK State (no one else is really even close)

3/7 Seeds

1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, UCLA

2) Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3) Marquette, Kansas St, Gonzaga, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) Miami FL, TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St

6) St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Duke

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Iowa

8) Northwestern, Illinois, Maryland, Arkansas

9) West Virginia, Auburn, Memphis, Florida Atlantic

10) Boise St, USC, Penn State, Wisconsin

11) Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers/Providence, NC State/Nevada

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale, Iona

14) Furman, Louisiana, UC Irvine, Colgate

15) Kennesaw St, Vermont, Montana St, Youngstown St

16) NC-Asheville, Grambling, Fairleigh Dickenson/A&M CC, Howard/SEMO

Last teams out: Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, UNC

  Did some scrubbing and concluded Providence and Pitt have much weaker resumes than I realized.  Both moved down vs. yesterday.  Wisconsin and Penn State have very similar resumes with more big wins than the other teams around them, including some away from home (especially in the case of WI).  I think the committee will reward that.

3/6/2023 Seeds

1) Kansas, Alabama, Houston, UCLA

2) Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3) Marquette, Kansas St, Gonzaga, UConn

4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5) Miami FL, TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St

6) St. Mary's, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Duke

7) Creighton, Michigan St, Northwestern, Missouri

8) Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Arkansas

9) West Virginia, Auburn, Boise St, Memphis

10) Florida Atlantic, Providence, USC, Utah St

11) Wisconsin, Pitt, Rutgers/NC State, Penn State/Nevada

12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake

13 Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale, Iona

14) Furman, Louisiana, UC Irvina, Colgate

15) Kennesaw St, Vermont, Montana St, Youngstown St

16) NC-Asheville, Fairleigh Dickenson, A&M CC/Grambling, Howard/SEMO

Last teams out: Mississippi St, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, UNC