1) Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
2) UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette
3) Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas St, UConn
4) Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia
5) TCU, Iowa State, San Diego St, Duke
6) Texas A&M, Miami, St. Mary's, Kentucky
7) Creighton, Michigan St, Missouri, Northwestern
8) Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis
9) Maryland, Iowa, Illinois, Auburn
10) Penn State, Boise St, USC, Utah State
11) Rutgers, Miss State, Providence/Arizona State, NC State/Nevada
12) Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Drake
13 Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara
14) Kennesaw St, Furman, Grand Canyon, Princeton
15) Montana St, Colgate, Vermont, NC-Asheville
16) Northern Kentucky, A&M CC, Fairleigh Dickenson/Texas Southern, Howard/SEMO
The 2 teams out with a reasonable case to be in: Oklahoma State, Wisconsin
OSU is just like Oklahoma last year, who I selected to be in but the committee left as the 2nd team out. I guess when you have that many quad 1 chances, you have to win a few more than they did? Or maybe it is a bit softer bubble this year, so there is room for OK State to squeak in? I'm 50-50 on this one.
Regarding Wisconsin, I'm a Badger fan, so am not 100% objective on this, but flawed as it is, IMO, Wisc's profile is equal to Providence's and better than the other 3 play-in teams. If it was any other team, I would probably have included them even though no one else is doing that. But since it is my team, I'm assuming my Badger red colored glasses must be distorting my vision. :) I'll feel happy and vindicated if they somehow make it, but not expecting it to happen.
I'd be disappointed (but not surprised) if the committee picks: Pittsburgh. If they are in, it is just because there is some unspoken quota of ACC teams that have to make the field. They have a much worse resume than OK State or Wisconsin (no signature win, more bad losses) and their metrics just as bad as Wisconsin's (better on NET, but lower on Kenpom, Torvak, and WAB).
I'd be surprised if the committee selects: Vandy or Clemson. These teams have some arguments supporting their inclusion (more than Pittsburgh, at least) but not expecting it to happen for them.
Anyone else would qualify as a true shock for me, though that has happened before so who knows.
Enjoy the Madness!!